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Usually, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

Theoretically, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest improvement is handed the award. However, it sparks an annual discussion about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest surprise.

But the current field is fundamentally different. The list of candidates is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners fading and longtime strugglers ascending collectively. During an typical season, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. Yet in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged excellence. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense constructed solely in the coach's image: a physical run game, a steady helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has taken advantage. And when easy reads haven't been there, he's been able to spin big plays out of nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense pressure he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a typical year, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a swift turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching blend of youth and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have ended the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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