Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
